Do Wage Floors Increase Employment Risk for Workers with Disabilities? Evidence from Minimum Wage Increases and Subminimum Wage Repeal -- by Roisin O'Neill, Shailee Manandhar, Douglas L. Kruse

People with disabilities are disproportionately represented in low-wage work, raising concerns that higher wage floors may reduce their employment opportunities, particularly for workers with more severe disabilities. We examine the effects of state minimum wage increases and state subminimum wage terminations on employment outcomes for people with disabilities using American Community Survey data from 2010–2023. We find little evidence that minimum wage increases reduce employment or labor force participation among people with disabilities, including those with more severe disabilities. While many estimates are statistically imprecise, confidence intervals generally rule out economically meaningful negative employment effects. We likewise find no evidence that terminating subminimum wages reduces employment opportunities for affected workers, and some estimates suggest positive employment effects for groups most likely to have been employed under subminimum wage arrangements. These gains may reflect complementary policies that often accompany repeal, such as Employment First initiatives. Overall, the results provide little support for the view that higher wage floors create disproportionate employment barriers for people with disabilities.